Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Last month I reported that the ‘fair value’ of the US 10-year Treasury yield appeared “lofty” relative to the average estimate for a combination model. In the weeks since, the...

Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a higher starting running yield and subsequent falls in market rates. Bonds will be a...

The recent rise in real yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIPS) looks compelling for locking in relatively attractive payout rates, but the usual risks with bonds still applies. That...

This is a monthly chart of the iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IGSB). The chart was sent to me by a technician although the chart sent wasn’t particularly legible...

The rise in interest rates has been meteoric, with mortgage rates reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades.The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield is highly watched as a leading indicator, and that...

With yields trading at elevated levels and stocks trading at depressed levels, it makes sense that junk bonds are not faring well this year. But they are trying to re-group for a potential...

Rising Interest rates have been very hard on stocks and bonds so far this year.But are any ETFs doing well during this rapidly rising rate environment? Yup. The ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury...

The US 10-year Treasury yield has been on a tear over the past two months, its rise fueled by persistent high inflation and ongoing increases in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve. But...

Generally, recessions are bullish for bonds. Which makes this 3.8% bond yield a “best recession bet.”Why are we talking bonds in a year where they have all been crushed? Well, that’s...

During the 3rd quarter of this year, we saw the 10-year treasury bond yield reach its highest level in nearly 15 years.This corresponded with mortgage rates reaching levels we hadn’t seen...

For a very long time, I have been writing in our Quarterly Inflation Outlook that TIPS were “relatively cheap, but absolutely expensive.” By that, I meant that TIPS real yields at -1%,...

Real (inflation-adjusted) yields have surged in recent weeks, raising the question of whether it’s timely to buy inflation-indexed Treasuries (a.k.a. TIPS).Maybe, but before you dive in, keep in...

The BoE has postponed the planned sale of UK government bonds amid uncertain market conditions.To stabilize the markets, the Bank of England plans to buy long-dated bonds and postpone the planned...

Back in March, I wrote, “The long-term chart of the 30-year treasury yield may now be the most important chart in the world. For the past 30 years or so, the yield on the long bond has formed a...