Victor Adair

For most of April, the premiere American stock indices have been stuck in a narrow range as economic data and Fed speakers deliver mixed signals. Volatility metrics are at or below one-year lows, and...

For the past several months, the Big Question has been, “When will we get Peak Fed?” The sentiment was that Peak Fed would be a “green light” buy signal, and risk assets were...

Expectations of more Fed tightening is the “most important thing” for financial marketsMarkets reacted dramatically to the “stronger than expected” CPI report Tuesday morning....

Powell was more hawkish than expected – stocks, bonds, and gold tumble – USDX hits a new 20-year highPowell’s Jackson Hole speech on August 26 was much more hawkish than markets had...

We are in the “silly summer season,” and the “adults” are away. Trading volumes are light, but my veteran trader’s intuition tells me that markets may get “back to...

My macro bias over the past few weeks has been that inflation would stay higher for longer than markets were pricing. I thought stock indices were in a bear market rally, based on the notion that Peak...

The markets understand that the Fed is determined to cool inflation by raising interest rates another ~125bps between now and December. But then what? The forward markets see the Fed beginning to cut...

Front-month NYMEX WTI futures dropped as much as $19 from last week’s high to this week’s low – but bounced back ~$10 by Friday’s close. The high/low range on Tuesday (after...

Market worries switch from “relentlessly rising inflation” to “looming recession”The Fed raised s/t rates by 75bps two weeks ago and warned that they will continue to raise...

Inflation fears morph into recession fears; stocks and bonds rally, commodities and the USD weakenThe Fed hiked s/t interest rates by 75bps on Wednesday of last week, with Powell using the term...