Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock dipped more than 6% in premarket trading Wednesday after releasing financial results for its fiscal first quarter of 2024. In the wake of the print’s release, several prominent Wall Street analysts shared their outlooks on the automaker’s future performance.
Rivian reports Q1 earnings
On Tuesday, Rivian reported first-quarter revenue surpassing Wall Street estimates and maintained its annual production forecast of 57,000 units, citing a steady demand for its electric vehicles (EVs)
The company reduced its annual capital expenditure estimate by $550 million to $1.2 billion, shifting the production start of its R2 midsize SUV to its Normal, Illinois, plant. Analysts had anticipated capital spending of $1.59 billion.
In March, Rivian announced it would accelerate deliveries by producing the more affordable R2 vehicles at its existing Illinois factory in the first half of 2026, rather than at a planned Georgia plant. The automaker said the move is expected to save the company over $2 billion.
Looking forward, Rivian expects to produce 57,000 units this year, short of the 62,277 vehicles projected by analysts polled by Visible Alpha.
The company’s revenue for the January-March quarter reached $1.2 billion, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $1.16 billion, according to LSEG data.
Rivian's net loss grew to $1.45 billion in the first quarter, compared to $1.35 billion in the same period last year.
As of March 31, cash and cash equivalents stood at $5.98 billion, down from $7.86 billion at the end of the previous quarter.
Rivian stock traded lower in the after-hours following the report’s release.
Analysts share thoughts on Rivian stock after Q1 results
UBS: “With 1Q24 annualized EBITDA loss run- rate at ($3.2)bn, and likely a step backward in 2Q24 with plant downtime, steep inflection needed in 2H24 to get to ($2.7)bn EBITDA loss for the year. That said, some signs in 1Q24 with gross profit loss/vehicle at ($38.8)k vs. ($43.4)k in 4Q23. However, 1Q24 negatively impacted by $9.3k/unit due to various supplier and other costs including accelerated depreciation incurred in advance of tech changes. So, arguably some larger underlying improvement.”
Goldman Sachs: “We believe company commentary on the recent positive demand response that Rivian has seen, as evidenced by the 91% qoq increase in demo drives (and aided by the expansion of leasing to 32 states and the R2/R3 unveil), will be viewed relatively well by investors especially given the weaker market for EVs more generally. The extent that this can be sustained without meaningful price reductions, and allow Rivian to meet its low single digit delivery growth outlook for the year, will likely be one key debate going forward.”
Piper Sandler: “We think the post-Q1 weakness may be due to erroneous expectations that headline-grabbing catalysts would materialize during the call (e.g. a collaboration with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) or specific commentary re: order trends, following the recent “R2” product unveiling). In our view, the most critical takeaway is that re-tooling is progressing as expected, with no cost overruns or delays. This, in combination with reiterated guidance and slower-than-expected cash burn, are enough to keep us positive.”
RBC Capital Markets: “Ultimately, Rivian is a show-me story. If it can indeed get to a positive Gross Profit for Q4/24, then we could see re-energized investor interest in the name. Still, we remain worried about competition. The fate of the company rests on R2 and R3, not on R1 in our view.”
“With Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) accelerating its efforts on an affordable vehicle with ~300 miles of range in H1/25 and GM also with ~300 mile range EVs also priced sub-$30k with the IRA credit, we worry about how R2 will fare at a higher price point and possible lower range. Finally, given the EV slowdown, we wonder how R2/R3 will fare against legacy OEMs with similar products offering compelling PHEV alternatives.”
Mizuho: “While lower-priced R2 positive, it is slated for 1H26, and could cannibalize near-term R1 sales. Also, ~ $1B/qtr of cash burn with $8B cash/ST investments on balance sheet are risks. While RIVN has strong branding and a solid consumer & commercial SUV/ Truck portfolio, high R1 prices at ~$70-95k+ are challenging, with low-priced R2/R3 still distant at 1H26E.”
Rivian stock is down 56% since the start of 2024, broadly underperforming the wider market.