S&P 500 Futures - Jun 24

Trump is only relatively strong because Biden is such an embarrassment. This election need a real competition. Big Short in November.

I agree completely. It is a sign of the degree of frenzied speculation in markets, I believe. People who have no business playing in stocks and who would serve themselves far better by buying treasuries, for example, are nowhere to be found. This kind of thing always happens in lead ups to crashes. And the people in the finance industry play into it, too. Like the rating agencies giving out triple A ratings to suprime in the lead up to 2008. It is the same kind of thing.

This is what you get when people like JP light a blazing fire under markets with guidance that never comes true. And the years of QE and never letting markets periodically reset with low rates and all of that. It has people conditioned to buy the dip, setting them up for what Taleb wrote about in Black Swan.

If you are unfamiliar with Taleb's writing, in that he wrote about turkeys in an interesting analogy. If you are curious, here is an AI summary of the related concepts: In "The Black Swan," Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduces the concept of the "turkey problem" as an analogy to illustrate the limitations of induction and the dangers of relying solely on past experiences to make predictions. The turkey problem centers around the life of a hypothetical turkey. Every day, the turkey receives food, care, and attention from its human caretaker. Based on months of positive experiences, the turkey forms an inductive belief that humans are benevolent providers, and its expectations align with this belief. However, just before Thanksgiving, the turkey's belief is shattered. Despite all the positive experiences leading up to that point, the turkey's sudden demise demonstrates the fallacy of its inductive reasoning. The turkey's perception of the world and its future was shattered by an unexpected and highly negative event. Taleb uses this analogy to highlight the flaw in relying solely on past observations and data to predict the future. He argues that like the turkey, humans often make the mistake of assuming that past experiences are sufficient to anticipate future outcomes. However, this approach overlooks the existence of rare and unpredictable events (the "Black Swans") that can have a profound impact. The turkey problem serves as a cautionary tale, urging readers to consider the limitations of induction and the need to account for the possibility of unforeseen events. It underscores the importance of being aware of the gaps in our knowledge, embracing uncertainty, and adopting a more robust and adaptable mindset in our decision-making processes.

5172

BS. go away kid

No one ever said being successful bear wasn't difficult. Duh

They're just flapped!

You can be either a bull or bear in this market. In both instances if you get trapped you can simply wait it out. But if you are a bear and get trapped, odds are you won't have to wait as long if you get seriously trapped. If you are a bull though, according to the stats, you might have to wait a number of years, perhaps even ten or fifteen if you dont have luck on your side. Truth be told, a lot of measures based on history show this market as very very speculative, meaning a lot who dont belong in it are here. Put another way, this market is rife with a speculative frenzy. You can see it everywhere if you look carefully. Anyhow, good luck to you. I think you are right but that the drop could be very very large over a relatively short time.