IHS Holding Limited (IHS), a leading global provider of mobile telecommunications infrastructure, has reported a steady first quarter in 2024, despite facing headwinds from the devaluation of the Nigerian Naira. The company's performance aligned with expectations, showcasing organic growth and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability and managing debt. IHS also completed significant lease renewals and a new agreement in Nigeria, signaling confidence in its market presence.
Key Takeaways
- IHS experienced a 35% organic growth and added 270 tenants along with 523 lease amendments.
- The company signed a new agreement with Airtel in Nigeria and renewed leases with MTN in Zambia and South Africa.
- IHS is focusing on increasing profitability, reducing capital expenditures, and reviewing its market portfolio.
- Plans to raise between $500 million to $1 billion through market disposals are underway, with intentions to use excess proceeds for debt reduction, share buybacks, or dividends.
- Despite the devaluation of the Nigerian Naira, the company expects better results in the second quarter due to foreign exchange resets.
- IHS completed the sale of its Peru subsidiary and continues to commit to Brazil as a key market.
Company Outlook
- IHS maintains its 2024 guidance with anticipated improvements in financial results and margins starting in Q2 2024.
- The company is conducting a strategic review to evaluate various options, including potential dispositions.
- IHS aims to maintain leverage levels within the target range before considering share buybacks or dividends.
Bearish Highlights
- The devaluation of the Nigerian Naira led to a 30.7% decline in revenue and a 45% decrease in adjusted EBITDA.
- Cash from operations decreased significantly, contributing to a 72% decline in ALFCF to $43 million.
- The company's consolidated net leverage ratio increased to 3.8 times, up 0.4 times from the previous quarter.
Bullish Highlights
- Revenue in Nigeria increased by 46%, driven by foreign exchange resets.
- Sub-Saharan Africa segment saw a revenue increase of 7.5%, with organic growth of 15%.
- In the LatAm segment, revenue increased by 4.7%, though organic revenue growth decreased slightly by 0.4%.
Misses
- Adjusted EBITDA margin was affected, sitting at 44.3% primarily due to higher operating costs in Nigeria.
- Capital expenditures were reduced by 65% due to lower investment in Nigeria and SSA segments.
Q&A Highlights
- IHS Towers expects EBITDA margins to increase to 56-57% in the next three quarters.
- The company targets double-digit returns for build-to-suit sites initially and around 20% after securing a second tenant.
- Renewal agreements in Zambia and Rwanda are progressing, with Zambia's being a 10-year renewal.
- Holding company costs have decreased and are expected to remain lower.
In summary, IHS Holding Limited is navigating through currency devaluation challenges while still managing to achieve organic growth and advance strategic goals. The company's focus on profitability, debt management, and market optimization positions it to potentially improve its financial standing in the upcoming quarters.
With key renewals and a new agreement in place, IHS demonstrates its commitment to maintaining a strong market presence and delivering on its financial targets.
InvestingPro Insights
IHS Holding Limited (IHS) has shown resilience in the face of currency fluctuations and market challenges. As investors consider the company's prospects, certain metrics and InvestingPro Tips can provide deeper insight into its financial health and stock performance.
InvestingPro Data:
- The company's market capitalization stands at $1.28 billion, reflecting its relative size in the industry.
- With a negative P/E ratio of -0.67 for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023, the company has faced challenges in profitability.
- Despite a quarterly revenue decline of 3.11% in Q1 2023, IHS has managed a revenue growth of 8.37% over the last twelve months, indicating some positive momentum.
InvestingPro Tips:
- Analysts have raised concerns about the company's short-term liquidity, as its short-term obligations exceed its liquid assets.
- On a more positive note, the stock has experienced a strong return over the last three months, with a 20.31% price total return, which may interest traders looking for recent upward trends.
Investors seeking additional insights into IHS Holding Limited can find more InvestingPro Tips at https://www.investing.com/pro/IHS. For instance, while the company does not pay a dividend, analysts predict it will be profitable this year, a potential sign of a turnaround. There are 6 additional tips available on InvestingPro, offering a comprehensive analysis for those interested in the company's future.
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Full transcript - IHS Holding Ltd (IHS) Q1 2024:
Operator: Good day, and welcome to the IHS Holding Limited First Quarter 2024 Earnings Results Call for the three-month period ended March 31, 2024. Please note that today's conference is being webcast and recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Colby Synesael. Please go ahead, sir.
Colby Synesael: Thank you, operator. Thanks also to everyone for joining the call today. I'm Colby Synesael, the EVP of Communications here at IHS. With me today are Sam Darwish, Chairman and CEO; and Steve Howden, our CFO. This morning we published our unaudited financial statements for the three-month period ended March 31, 2024 with the SEC, which can also be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, and issued a related earnings release, presentation and supplemental deck. These are the consolidated results of HIS Holding Limited, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol HIS, which comprises the entirety of the Group's operations. Before we discuss the results, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer set out at the beginning of the presentation on Slide 2, which should be read in full along with the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements set out in our earnings release and 6K filed as well today. In particular, the information to be discussed may contain forward-looking statements, which by their nature, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other important factors, some of which are beyond our control that are difficult to predict and other factors, which may cause actual results, performance, or achievements, or industry results to be materially different from any future results performance, or achievements, or industry results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our risk section of our Form 20-F, followed by the Securities and Exchange Commission and our other filings with the SEC. We'll also refer to non-IFRS measures, including adjusted EBITDA that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business and ALFCF that we view as important in assessing the liquidity of our business. Reconciliation of non-IFRS metrics to nearest IFRS metrics can be found in our earnings presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Sam Darwish, our Chairman and CEO.
Sam Darwish: Thanks, Colby, and welcome everyone to our first quarter 2024 earnings results call. We’re reporting solid performance across our key metrics when considering the further the significant devaluation of the Nigerian currency, the Naira that took place during the second half of 2023 and continued into the first quarter of 2024. Results were broadly in line with our expectations, while ALFCF meaningfully outperformed due to timing. We expect to see more positive momentum in the second quarter as our contract resets kick in post the devaluation in Q1 2024. As such, we are maintaining our 2024 guidance, including our ForEx assumptions. We've made strong commercial progress since the beginning of the year across our African business. Organic growth for the quarter was 35%. Group-wide, we added 270 tenants and 523 lease amendments and built 216 towers, including 158 in Brazil. We previously announced the signing of a new 3,950 tenant multi-year rollout agreement with Airtel in Nigeria in February, which also included a three-year contract extension. We have renewed our master lease agreement with MTN in Zambia for a further 10 years and also just extended our MLA with MTN South Africa by another two years until 2034. For the remainder of the year, we expect an acceleration in our KPIs as the underlying trends driving our business remain healthy and the impact of our ForEx resets that are associated with the Naira devaluation that occurred this quarter start to meaningfully benefit our adjusted EBITDA margin. During the quarter, the average ForEx rate for the U.S. dollar the Naira was 1,316 and was in line with our guidance of 1,316. This however compares to 815 in Q4 2023 and 461 a year ago. It equates to a $133 million headwind quarter-over-quarter and a $392 million headwind year-over-year. We however have seen the Naira appreciate versus the decrease we saw in March, which I will speak to. Skipping to Slide 7, I want to discuss our highlights. I'd like to start by providing an update on our strategic review that we announced during our earnings call in March. We continue to look at all options through a value-creation lens with the goal of maximizing the value of our assets and therefore value for shareholders over the near, medium and long term. There are a number of areas of focus here. One, increasing our operating profitability and substantially reducing our CapEx to increase cash flow generation, which is reflected in our 2024 guidance and implies a notable step-up in adjusted EBITDA margins for the remainder of the year and a significant reduction in CapEx year-over-year. Two, we continue to review our portfolio of markets to determine the right composition for IHS going forward. This is expected to include the disposal of certain markets with a target of raising $500 million to $1 billion over the next 12 months. And three, capital allocation of increased cash flow and disposal proceeds raised, are expected to be primarily derived utilized to reduce debt. However, we will also consider deploying excess proceeds through share buyback and or introducing a dividend policy. To be clear, these initial targets do not rule out further initiatives to continue increasing shareholder value, which we continue to assess in parallel. While it's only been two months, we're off to a good start, with significant work already completed by us and our advisors to identify and analyze these various opportunities. We will continue providing updates as we progress. Moving on to governance, as previously disclosed in January 2024, we reached a settlement agreement with Van Daele, reflecting a commitment to strong corporate governance and constructive shareholder engagement. IHS' Board of Directors are supportive of the proposal being put forward by Van Daele and I recommend investors vote to approve these changes at our next AGM, which is expected to occur in June. For shareholders support this proposal will have better aligned our governance policies with that of a mature US listed company which was an important goal we set at the time of our public listing. In terms of our commercial relationship with MTN, we are constantly in constructive and evolving discussions as matters keep progressing. In March, we signed a 10-year renewal with MTN in Zambia and we just extended the South Africa MLA by two years, as we reached an agreement to unwind our power managed services arrangement with MTN in the country. This agreement reflects the escalating load shedding situation in South Africa, whereby both companies agreed for MTN to undertake the CapEx and OpEx requirements to build the resilience they desire. In Nigeria, we continue to constructively discuss and explore ways to support our largest clients. Moving to our balance sheet, which is a top priority. We continue to actively pursue initiatives to extend maturities, manage interest expense and shift more debt into local currency. During the quarter, we signed a new $270 million term loan and used the proceeds to pay down US dollar letters of credit in Nigeria. Reducing interest costs and reducing cash collateral which improved our liquidity position and improved our interest expense. At the end of the quarter, we had $693 million of available liquidity. As anticipated given the devaluation during the quarter, our leverage increase further ending the quarter at 3.8. However, we continue to expect to remain within our target range of three to four this year. I'd now like to provide an update on Nigeria macro. In March, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced it had fully cleared the official for its backlog. And the Monetary Policy Committee further increased the policy interest rate by 200 basis points to 24.75%. Positive actions that appear to have had a positive impact on the naira, which peaked at 1625 for the dollar on March 11, but ended the quarter stronger at 1394. We're also seeing a narrowing in the spread between the official rate and the federal rate to between 0% and 5% on most days and in material improvement in US dollar availability. This has enabled us to access approximately $200 million since the beginning of the year of which we have upstream $61 million to grow since the end of the quarter. And $78 million to settle USD letters of credit in Nigeria with the balance used for general corporate purposes. We expect up three more during the remainder of the year. Lastly, on LatAm, we completed the sale of our Peru subsidiary to SBA communication on April 30, 2024. And as noted earlier, we built 158 towers in Brazil during the quarter. We remain committed to Brazil, which is our second largest market and one of our fastest growing. We continue to drive strong operational results there and see significant ongoing growth opportunities. And with that, I will turn the call over to Steve.
Steve Howden: Thanks Sam, and hello everyone. Turning to slide 9. As Sam mentioned here we show our Q1 performance. As you see here, both Towers and Tenants are up approximately 3% in Q1 2024 versus Q1 2023, while lease amendments again increased by double digit percentages. Fundamental underlying tenant’s growth continues across our key markets. Clearly, the financial performance in Q1 2014 was majorly impacted by the naira devaluation in the quarter from 912 naira to the $1 of 31 December to 1,394 naira to the $1 at 31 March, 2024. Therefore, on a reported basis, revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined in the quarter consistent with our prior expectation that our Q1 2024 results will reflect the impact of the January devaluation of the naira. Specifically in Q1 revenue declined by 30.7%, adjusted EBITDA increased by 44.8% and ALFCF fell by 72.2% in each case on a reported basis and driven largely by the impact of the devaluation more than offsetting the strong organic growth. However, it is worth noting that period-on-period comparison is also distorted by the presence of $48 million of one-off revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and $43 million of one-off ALFCF in Q1 of 2023. Our adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 44.3%. We expect our financial results notably improving Q2 2024 driven in part by our FX resets. Our level of CapEx investment decreased by 65% in the quarter, largely due to lower capital expenditure for our Nigeria and SSA segments, partially offset by an increase in LatAm, all which I'll discuss shortly. As communicated last quarter, while we have increased our focus on cash generation and pulled back our capital allocation, we continue to focus on projects that we believe promise the highest returns and are the most strategic. Finally, our consolidated net leverage ratio increased to 3.8 times at the end of Q1, up 0.4 times versus Q4 2023. This is consistent with the expected increase from flagged last quarter due to the most recent devaluation in Nigeria and it's still within our target three to four times range as we have guided. Turning to our revenue. On a consolidated basis, you can see how the continued devaluation turns the quarter of strong growth into a 30.7% decline. The naira devalued 35% in Q1 as mentioned already yet the business delivered organic revenue growth of 35.5%, driven primarily by FX resets, CPI escalations and power. Our Q1 2024 results also reflect the absence of $48 million from a one-time cash payment from our smallest key customer in Nigeria in Q1 of last year and included a $5 billion headwind as a result of the Brazilian telecom operator Oi having released reached resolution on its restructuring plan. Finally, the lease amendments new collocation and deep sites also contributed to organic growth this quarter and came from countries across our portfolio. The right side shows the organic growth rates of each of our segments for the quarter were our Nigeria segment grew approximately 46%, including a large benefit from FX reset. On slide 11, you can see our consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins for Q1 2024. As discussed, the Nigeria devaluation drove 31% decrease in reported revenue in the first quarter despite the quarterly organic revenue growth of over 35%. That again demonstrated the continued strong top-line growth trends of the business. Q1 2024 reported revenue increase of $133 million headwind quarter-over-quarter and a $392 million headwind year-over-year from the naira devaluation or $219 million after adjusting for the impact of FX resets over the past year. FX with an incremental $1 million headwind during the quarter versus the rates assumed in prior items when factoring in all currency assumptions. As we have previously noted, most of the FX resets of the US dollar denominated portion of our Nigerian contracts are calculated using the average rate of the prior quarter for the spot rate at the beginning of the current quarter, and therefore, our Q1 2024 results don't reflect the FX reset benefit from the late January devaluation, but this will start showing our Q2 results. In addition, as we said, the comparisons is also distorted due to the $48 billion of one-off revenue in Q1 2023 and the $5 billion headwind from Aui's restructuring plan, both of which have similar impacts on adjusted EBITDA. In Q1 2024, adjusted EBITDA of $185 billion decreased 45%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 44.3%, down 1,100 basis points from the prior year. The year-over-year changes in adjusted EBITDA and margin for the first quarter primarily reflect a decrease in revenue, including the absence of the one-off items we've already discussed, as well as the higher operating costs in Nigeria versus certain expectations, albeit power generation cost of sale has decreased by more than $26 million. As previously highlighted through Project Green, we continue to priorities the alternative sources of power to reduce our dependency on diesel. On Slide 12, we first review our Adjusted Levy Free Cash Flow, or ALFCF, and in Q1 2024, we generated ALFCF of $43 million, a 72% decrease versus Q1 2023, primarily due to a decrease in cash from operations and an increase in net interest paid, partially offset by a decrease in maintenance CapEx and withholding tax. However, the ALFCF growth rate is impacted by the $43 million of one-off impact we saw in Q1 of last year. ALFCF cash conversion rate was 23.3%. ALFCF in the quarter does benefit positively from some timing aspects related to maintenance capex and interest and should normalize in Q2. Turning to CapEx in Q4, excuse me, in Q1 2024, CapEx of $53 million decreased 65% year-on-year. This decrease was primarily driven by lower capital expenditure for our Nigeria and SSA segments of $77 million and $22 million respectively, partially offset by an increase in capital expenditure of $1 million for our LatAm segment. The decrease in Nigeria was primarily driven by decreases related to Project Green and its maintenance CapEx, while the decrease in SSA is primarily driven by decreases related to refurbishment and also maintenance CapEx. As it relates to these decreases in maintenance CapEx over the past few quarters, we've challenged our operating teams to find ways to improve efficiency, and they are delivering. Thus, we believe much of the savings we see will be permanent as opposed to push out into outer years. The increase in LatAm is primarily driven by increases related to new size capital expenditure. As we've discussed previously, we remain focused on cash generation but are still allocating some capital to projects that we believe promise the highest returns and are the most strategic. On the segment review on Slide 13, I want to add to Sam's earlier comments of what we are seeing in Nigeria. In March 2024, CBN announced having fully cleared the official backlog of FX transactions and raised interest rates by 200 basis points to 24.75%, the second rate hike in 2024. These actions appear to have had a positive impact on Nigeria's FX market, with the May 10th US dollar to Naira Bloomberg rate at 1,436 versus a peak of 1,625 in March. The government, including the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Nigeria, passed a number of reforms in the last six months, both small and large, aimed at increasing dollar flow within Nigeria, increasing the attractiveness of Nigeria as a foreign direct investment destination, and increasing transparency in the money markets. There is still more to do, but as a result, we've seen an increase in US dollars in Nigeria and FX reserves in the country have increased to $33.8 billion at the end of March 2024, from $32.9 billion at the end of December 23. Since the FX rates environment adjusted in January, we were able to access $78 million to settle US dollar obligations locally in Nigeria, and additionally, we've upstreamed $61 million to group since the end of the quarter. We expect to upstream more over the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, the price of both oil and ice gas oil have increased recently. Looking at gas oil, it was $813 per tonne in Q1 2024, up from $792 per tonne in Q4 2023. And also, inflation jumped to 33.2% this March versus 22% in March last year. For IHS, Q1 2024 revenue of $228 million decreased 46% year-on-year on a reported basis, reflecting that ongoing devaluation in the quarter and the one-off revenue in Q1 2023, but increased 46% organically. Organic growth was driven primarily by FX resets and escalations. The negative FX impact was $392 million, or 65% due to devaluation. Our tower and tenant count increased by 0.2% and 1.9% respectively versus Q1 of last year. Our co-location rate consequently improved to 1.59 times up from 1.57 times in Q1 last year. Lease amendments continue to be a strong driver of growth, increasing 9.3% year-on-year, as our customers added additional equipment to our sites, particularly 5G upgrades. Q1 2024 segment adjusted EBITDA in Nigeria was $103 million, a 62% decrease from a year ago, and segment adjusted margin was down 1,800 basis points to 45.2%, in each case largely driven by the naira devaluation impacting revenue and the one-off item in Q1 last year. While operating cost this quarter were higher than our own expectations for things such as bad debt and diesel, albeit year-over-year we saw an overall reduction in cost of sales, primarily from diesel savings. In our sub-Saharan African segment, towers and tenants increased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively versus Q1 2023. Revenue increased by 7.5%, of which organic revenue grew 15%, driven primarily by escalations and FX resets. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 6.4%, which primarily reflects the increased revenue, partially offset by an increase in cost of sales due to higher power generation costs. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin was stable at 53% versus 53.6% in Q1 2023. And also, as Sam mentioned, starting in Q2 of this year, we will no longer be providing backup power services to MTN South Africa and now have a more traditional steel and grass model with MTN South Africa. This has de-risked our business and will improve margins and cash flow. In our LatAm segment, towers and tenants grew by 11% and 6.4% respectively versus Q1 2023. Revenue increased by 4.7% of which organic revenue growth decreased 0.4% but that as a result of the Brazilian telecom operator Oi restructuring plan and the subsequent renegotiation of their contractual agreement with us in Brazil, leading to a $5 million reduction in revenue this quarter that we had not anticipated in guidance. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased by 9%, leading to a 70.8% segment adjusted EBITDA margin, a 250 basis point increase versus Q1 of 2023. In Brazil, our second largest market with 7,815 towers, macro conditions were largely positive as FX rates were essentially flat and both interest rates and inflation came down. In MENA, towers and tenants grew by 8.7% and 9.1% respectively, while revenue increased by 12%, including a 6% organic revenue growth driven primarily by new sites and escalations. Segment adjusted EBITDA grew by nearly 66% and the Q1 2024 segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 55.6%. Now skipping to slide 15, we look at our capital structure and related items. At March 31, 2024, we had approximately $4 billion of external debt and IFRS 16 lease liabilities. The $4 billion of debt, approximately $2 billion represent our bond financings, and other in- indebtedness includes $370 million that have been drawn down from the three-year bullet term loan facility at the IHS Holding Limited level. That facility had $130 million of un-drawn capacity in Q1, of which we voluntarily reduced the un-drawn amount by $70 million in the quarter. And in April, we completed a drawdown of the remaining $60 million balance since the availability of that remaining balance was expiring. As Sam mentioned, the balance sheet is an important component of our thinking as it relates to the strategic review. We have already undertaken and continue with various balance sheet initiatives to one, extend maturities, two, manage interest rate expense, three, swap dollar obligations into local currency where possible, and four, add flexibility to our capital structure. This includes in March when we signed a $270 million bilateral loan to refinance our letters of credit in Nigeria, extending the maturity of these obligations, reducing interest expense by approximately 300 basis points, and releasing approximately $95 million equivalent of cash collateral previously held against these letters of credit. As you can imagine, we're pleased to have completed these initiatives, which further de-risked the balance sheet and increased our financial flexibility. Cash and cash equivalents increased to $33 million at March 31, and excludes the $60 million of additional funds from the term loan we drew down in April. In terms of where that cash is held, approximately 34% was held in Naira at our Nigeria business, given the money that was recently freed up from the collateral against the credit lines. We're in the process of up-streaming much of this and have been able to upstream $61 million following the end of the quarter at an average rate of approximately 1,279 naira to the dollar, a positive reflection of the government's recent actions to increase daily FX turnover, or USD availability and bring together the diversion between the parallel and official rates. While we anticipate to upstream again in 2024 we do caution it remains to be determined if the increased dollar availability to be sustained. Consequently from all the moving elements, at the end of Q1 2024, our consolidated net debt reduced to approximately $3.7 billion and we had consolidated net leverage ratio of 3.8 times up 0.4 times versus the end of 2023. We expect leverage to remain within our current target of three times to four times net leverage ratio this year prior to the realization of any future disposals at which time we expect the leverage to drop. Finally, as it further relates to the devaluation I want to point out that our Q1 results show an unusually large net loss of $1.6 billion which is driven primarily by the finance costs, the vast majority of which is unrealized FX losses. As we saw in Q2 of last year in particular and then Nigeria to valuation, these costs arise principally due to a US dollar bonds and because of the USD intercompany shareholder loan structure we have used historically to fund the business. These costs which are very large non-cash can vary significantly and typically increase in the context of the devaluation of the note which is the primary reason why they increased dramatically in Q1. We've added back slide 21 to the appendix of the presentation as you know in Q2 of last year to help further explain this dynamic and highlight the Delta this past quarter. Moving to slide 16, we are maintaining our 2024 guidance including our FX assumptions but we announced albeit an additional $12 million in lost revenue from oil versus our previous expectations and has a 100% flow through to adjusted EBITDA and a last year. Despite that we expect to see improvement in our financial results and margins starting in Q2 2024 as we benefit from the FX resets associated with the devaluation in Q1 2024 and based on our expectations for our KPIs. I'd also add that we've been mentioning that we've been reviewing our power managed services agreement with MTN South Africa for some time now and as we've discussed this has already been completed in Q2 2024. However, this doesn't impact our guidance as this was already factored in. On slide 17 on the left you see our revenue by reporting currency for Q1 were on the rise quite a breakout of revenue based on contract split. The bottom of the slide shows the average annual FX rate assumptions used in our 2024 guidance and are unchanged from last quarter. This now brings to the end of our formal presentation. We thank you for your time today. Operator, please now open the line for questions.
Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Richard Jones from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Richard Jones: Hi. I wanted to check and see what you're seeing in terms of the transition to 4G and 5G in Nigeria given that the currency had been so unstable, did you see a pullback and now with I guess the rates kind of converging and having a little bit more stability using you'll see an acceleration in that build for the rest of the year?
Sam Darwish: Good morning, Richard. This is Sam. Look -- it's unavoidable at the moment the carriers in Nigeria are focused on weathering basically the devaluation -- the massive devaluation that has occurred. They will in my view slow down the transition from 4G to 5G. In any case even as we talk 4G there's still kind of like in the final stages of that rollout from it's not going to be a massive delay, but my estimate is that we may see a little bit of a slowdown on the rollout of 5G until they see a little bit more clarity on where the naira will land.
Steve Howden: Yes, it does that is that we factored in a bunch of that into our guidance already. As you remember we pulled back significantly on CapEx. A lot of that's being driven through reductions in new-build sites in Nigeria as well as some other things as well as say some of that's already baked in. I will say looking at our Africa results on Nigeria they still continue to be pushing pretty hard and as evidenced by our agreement with them in February as around 3,950 tenant roll out over five years. So there's sort of there's certainly a bit of slowdown and given where the macro is but we're still seeing you know particular people like ourselves are still keen to push ahead to get us in 5G lease amendments in the quarter. we had 523 lease amendments totaling Q1 and within that, there was surpassed in 5G where mostly 4G.
Richard Jones: And then regarding the OI of churn, I guess it's $12 million for the year, is there anymore after this year or is that largely going to be it?
Steve Howden: So, that impact will continue that offset and actually moderates a bit next year given that restructuring plan has been agreed with them, but I suspect they will be staying through the through the impact of 2024. So, I need to reiterate that that $12 million was not forecast, we have forecast some already. And $12 million did not forecast, so -- and you can consider that most of the outperformance versus the guidance because we haven't changed guidance ranges, but we're absorbing that additional asset.
Richard Jones: Okay. Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins (NYSE:ROL) from Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins: Thanks and good morning. Couple of questions.
Steve Howden: Good morning Michael.
Michael Rollins: Good morning. I was curious if you could give us an update on churn, what you're seeing from customers and if there's still some churn that needs to be processed in any of your key markets that we should be mindful of? And then second in terms of the strategic review, did you look into the question as to whether or not the public markets are the right place for IHS equity and what did you learn on that front? Thanks.
Steve Howden: So, Mike, on churn point, there isn't anything particularly new in terms of what we see, no particular situations where it carries in any of our markets. And we are obviously aware of the OPEC discussions with MTN in Nigeria. And that originally sent throughout 2,500 sites this year. And but outside of that, we haven't changed our thoughts on that either. And -- but other than that, there isn't really anything to comment on different or new trends or outsized trends in churn, it remains pre-let.
Sam Darwish: And I might -- this is Sam. Look, on the second question, look -- we like New York, we like public markets, we definitely like you guys, so kind of like we're happy where we are. But at the moment we have announced the strategic review. The strategic review will look at every different aspect of where we are. We fundamentally believe that that that we are being undervalued by public markets. Now, the whole asset class is kind of like under pressure given where cost of money is. At the moment our peers, our U.S. peers are 40% down for example over the past two years. So, we do acknowledge this is some kind of a trough at the moment that the markets are seeing. But again Mike had -- look nothing is off the table as we conduct the strategic review and we will kind of like make the relevant announcement as and when we progressed that review.
Michael Rollins: Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jon Atkin from RBC. Please go ahead.
Jon Atkin: Thanks. I'm just curious about capital allocation relative to the strategic review and what are the some of the criteria that you're evaluating when you think about potential dispositions? You talked about wanting to remain in Brazil, but whether it's by asset class or relative scale or geography, but any kind of broad brush criteria that we should think about as you -- think about dispositions?
Steve Howden: Yes. I think I got to say I think just broad brush that the business has always been a growth stock and we're in growth markets, in emerging market growth infrastructure company. And I think now is the intention to remain as such. As you've seen this year that we've pulled back significantly on sort of organic CapEx spend. And now so that we can focus on specific areas, this year is Brazil. And so hopefully that forms part of the long-term capital allocation. But what we're also being very clear on is that that total -- totality of capital allocation is changing from history and we look historically to deploy significant capital into M&A opportunities. And right now we're thinking through what we have already and we're thinking through the balance sheet and potentially looking at paying down some debt. And we're also looking at near-term shareholder returns and whether that be through really share buybacks or whether that be through dividends at some point in the future, and to set a sort of the broad brush changes there. But we are working through right now and that we're trying to be clear on.
Jon Atkin: Thanks. Again, I think you kind of gave us some of the tools to think about this. What can you highlight just to retain it should repeat or accentuate the 55% the EBITDA margins for the year. So there's a step-up here, and what are the major drivers of that, of your EBITDA margin expansion?
Steve Howden: Yes. I think I mean if you take the Q1 EBITDA margin looks -- it looks a little low in comparison to the full year trend. And that's in part driven by the way things recovered businesses and in part driven by asset pass-through revenue that we have in South Africa, which is coming to an end next quarter. So, you'll see a step-up in margin from technicalities around pass-through those, particularly, for all the contract reset. And we commented clearly on how fuel is that impacted by the market valuation and contracts will start type where we have stopped resetting, beginning of April in Q2. So, you'll see that step-up again. So for the rest of the year and given where we are in Q1, due to the employee will be able to 55%, we're expecting to see a 56%, 57% type margins run through the next three quarters of the year and the business is heading that direction.
Jon Atkin: And then lastly on the build-to-suits, can you share what the kind of the single tenant or initial tenant returns are that you're underwriting to for the -- but I don't you have anything in pipeline?
Steve Howden: Yes. I mean no, no different effect because we're obviously -- we've obviously shown back the number of sites from last year and the majority of those main sites for Brazil. We've always been a view that in a single tenant returns should be double-digit. And then once we get a second tenant on, we able to see something around 20% mark from a return point of view. And that continues to be the way we think about things. And yes, we'll see sale of samples.
Jon Atkin: Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of David Lopes from New Street Research. Please go ahead.
David Lopes: Hi. Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered, but one left on the -- on leverage. I was wondering -- in leverage and shareholder remuneration, I was wondering what would be the deleverage level you would like before starting to think about, yes, our share buybacks or reintroducing the dividend. And actually, a follow-up, apologies if it has been unsettling the sub-question of that, I missed part of it. We have seen MTN, Nigeria cutting its CapEx guidance materially a few weeks ago. I was wondering what's the risk to your guidance and does that mean that we should maybe expect more to be towards the lower end of the revenue range on order supply? Thank you.
Steve Howden: I mean we have a deal. I think we have of the checkpoint already extensive the very first question we have, so, yes, we've seen MTN pullback on CapEx. We expected that that was sort of baked into our guidance but being offset by a sales push in the country demand given the Health & Science segment. I'm not expecting that to materially impact the guidance that we put out a very underleveraged. But for us over time that that will be worked out right now, and only get ahead of that at 23.8 times where we’re in Q1 is up to the top end of our range, at times we might see that down the bottom end of that range. And historically, we've been at the bottom of that range, but we're working through that right now as part of the broader strategic reduce. It's a real framework around disposals, which you spoke about a little bit already today. But I would say that how we allocate that majority debt. But some may come back to share -- direct shareholders.
David Lopes: Thank you.
Sam Darwish: David, but -- if you allow me to also add that, look, we are comfortable with our liquidity position at the moment. I mean we have roughly $700 million of liquidity. Traditionally, however, we have always been conservative on our debt allocation and we've always kind of like given the range that we like to stay with the 3 to 4 is there a range that is lower than most of where our peers are. Even as we are now with the massive devaluation of naira, that took it from 400 to the dollar to almost 1,400 or 1,500 to the dollar. We're still are within our range. But again this conservative mentality that Steve is talking about is the one that is driving us to basically say, you know, what let's further reduce our leverage. But it's not basically it's not something that – it’s not danger we face at the moment. It’s just something that we feel comfortable staying basically at lower levels of the range. And by the way this is not tied to the dividend payment or this is not tied to a shareholder buyback situation. Those are more tied to concluding this year, the strategic review that we are doing. We want to make sure that we get all of the pieces somehow tied together before we commit to shareholder a return.
David Lopes: Okay. Very clear. Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Stella Cridge from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Stella Cridge: Hi, there. Good morning all. Many thanks for the update. Just a couple of other areas, I wanted to ask about. On the sub-Saharan African contract were there any changes of note and the Zambia contract versus before? And I remember I think you also have won the contract and maturing. So I just wondered what the status of that was. And secondly I had also noticed the negative EBITDA portion other part and a key other cost capital cost has been $27 million versus being in the 30s in prior quarters. So just wondering is that at sustainable level going forward, or could this come down elsewhere further? That would be great.
Steve Howden: Yes. So on the first question, nothing particularly as they are called out in terms of Zambia renewals, pluses and minuses, but a 10-year renewal with SBA Zambia, and Rwanda is not quite done yet and geographic have still constructive, but not quite there yet. And, sorry, the final question, can you just repeat the financial question, which point you were talking about?
Stella Cridge: Yes. The negative EBITDA from other areas, so these unallocated costs, I just want to just…
Steve Howden: Yeah. So that's kind of holding company costs. The resurgent is full of our estimation and the presentation is correct. But our cost yet to come down versus prior quarters and we do expect it to remain lower than it had been historically, and we can take various cost saving initiatives for the group level. And so yeah we expect that to continue.
Stella Cridge: Okay. That’s super. And maybe if I could just ask also on the South Africa and change of the agreement there, is there any economic impact on the profitability of the of the contracts versus prior?
Steve Howden: That’s already been baked into our guidance and so there's ups and downs that are certainly making go, so no change in the percentage of the group.
Stella Cridge: Okay. All right. That’s great. Thank you.
Operator: And that brings us to the end of the IHS Holdings Limited first quarter 2024 earning results call. Should you have any questions please contact the Investor Relations team via the e-mail address, investorrelations@ihstowers.com. The management team, thank you for your participation today and wish you a good day.
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